Winning 12 Spins in a Row at 5x
The chance of 12 winning spins in a row at 5x on the Wheel is 1.16 × 10-7%, or 1 in 864.43 million. At 5x a single spin wins 18% of the time.
The odds of 12 wins in a row
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Chance of one win at 5x | 18% |
| Chance of 12 wins in a row, starting from a given spin | 1.16 × 10-7% |
| Odds | 1 in 864.43 million |
| Spins to wait for it, on average | 1.05 billion |
| Chance it happens at least once in 100 spins | 8.46 × 10-6% |
| Chance it happens at least once in 500 spins | 4.64 × 10-5% |
| Chance it happens at least once in 1,000 spins | 9.38 × 10-5% |
| Chance it happens at least once in 10,000 spins | 9.48 × 10-4% |
| Profit across the streak at 1 per spin | 48 |
| Returned if the streak had been compounded (each win staked again) | 244.14 millionx the first stake |
The average wait counts spins until the first run of 12 wins is completed. It is an average over many players, and any individual can see it on their first 12 spins or never. The "at least once" figures are exact: they account for a run starting on any spin, not just the first.
What it means
A streak of 12 wins has a probability of 18% to the power of 12, which is 1.16 × 10-7%. Any one run of 12 spins is unlikely to do it, but over 500 spins the chance it shows up at least once is 4.64 × 10-5%.
A hot streak does not make the next spin likelier to win. After 12 wins the chance of another is still exactly 18%. Each spin gets its own provably fair roll, so there is no momentum to ride and no balance to correct. The belief that a winner is due to lose, or keeps winning, is the gambler's fallacy and the hot-hand fallacy: two sides of the same mistake.
A streak is a good moment to stop, not to raise the stake. The expected return is 90 per 100 staked whatever just happened, so winnings at risk on the next spin are expected to shrink on average. Deciding in advance when you will cash out is the only part of this you control.
Related
- 10 wins in a row at 5x
- 15 wins in a row at 5x
- Every winning streak at 5x
- The 5x multiplier in full
- 12 wins in a row at 3x
- 12 wins in a row at 3.5x
- 12 wins in a row at 4x
- 12 wins in a row at 6x
- 12 wins in a row at 7x