Losing 8 Spins in a Row at 1.25x
The chance of 8 losing spins in a row at 1.25x on the Wheel is 3.78 × 10-3%, or 1 in 26,469. At 1.25x a single spin loses 28% of the time.
The odds of 8 losses in a row
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Chance of one loss at 1.25x | 28% |
| Chance of 8 losses in a row, starting from a given spin | 3.78 × 10-3% |
| Odds | 1 in 26,469 |
| Spins to wait for it, on average | 36,761 |
| Chance it happens at least once in 100 spins | 0.2538% |
| Chance it happens at least once in 500 spins | 1.333% |
| Chance it happens at least once in 1,000 spins | 2.667% |
| Chance it happens at least once in 10,000 spins | 23.81% |
| Stake lost across the streak (1 per spin) | 8 |
| Stake a double-after-every-loss plan would need to survive it | 255 |
The average wait counts spins until the first run of 8 losses is completed. It is an average over many players, and any individual can see it on their first 8 spins or never. The "at least once" figures are exact: they account for a run starting on any spin, not just the first.
What it means
A streak of 8 losses has a probability of 28% to the power of 8, which is 3.78 × 10-3%. It is rare for any one run of 8 spins, but it does not stay rare if you keep going: across 500 spins the chance that it appears at least once is 1.333%.
The next spin is not owed a win. After 7 losses the chance of a win on the next spin is still exactly 72%. The wheel has no memory, and a fresh provably fair roll is generated for each spin. Believing a win is overdue is the gambler's fallacy, and it is the most common reason stakes grow during a bad run.
Doubling after a loss does not fix it. Doubling the stake until a win needs 28 − 1 times your first stake to survive 8 losses in a row, and a table limit or an empty balance ends the plan well before the maths evens out. The 10% house edge applies to every stake in the plan, so betting more does not change the expected loss per unit staked.
Related
- 7 losses in a row at 1.25x
- 9 losses in a row at 1.25x
- Every losing streak at 1.25x
- The 1.25x multiplier in full
- 8 losses in a row at 1.1x
- 8 losses in a row at 1.2x
- 8 losses in a row at 1.3x
- 8 losses in a row at 1.4x
- 8 losses in a row at 1.5x